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“Flows are doubtless following performance,” said Sol Waksman, founder and President of BarclayHedge. “Hedge funds returned 1.95% in October and 7.10% in the four months following the May-June skid. Also, our preliminary data shows that hedge funds are outperforming the S&P 500 by about 21 basis points through November.”
Distressed Securities funds hauled in $3.8 billion (3.3% of assets) in October, the heaviest inflow of any hedge fund strategy, while Emerging Markets funds posted an inflow of $2.2 billion (1.0% of assets). Meanwhile, Fixed Income funds received only $506 million (0.3% of assets), the lightest inflow since April.
“Hedge fund investors are exhibiting a healthier appetite for risk,” noted Waksman. “They are finally venturing into areas like Distressed Securities after embracing conservative strategies for most of the year.”
Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) received $7.9 billion (2.8% of assets) in October, the eighth straight inflow, while funds of hedge funds took in $3.3 billion (0.6% of assets), the fourth straight inflow. Meanwhile, hedge fund managers are capitalizing on kind conditions heading into 2011.
“Borrowing money to buy assets is virtually costless, investors handed hedge fund managers $32.1 billion in the past four months, and margin debt is soaring,” explained Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President of Research at TrimTabs. “At the same time, the rolling 12-month beta of hedge fund returns sits below the long-term average, and that of equity long-short funds is dipping below zero. Managers should be especially eager to book fat profits through year-end, but they remain very reluctant to make directional bets on equities.”
Managers are also extremely bearish on the 10-year Treasury note, according to the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund Managers. Bearish sentiment soared to 49% in November from 28% in October, while bullish sentiment sank to 13%, the lowest level since the inception of the survey in May.
“Retail investors and pension funds have been pouring money into high-flying fixed income for nearly two years,” noted Deluard. “But now hedge fund as well as retail bond inflows have ground to a halt, and mom and pop are ditching munis and junk. The more the infatuation with bond funds fades the more we fear the fallout will prove particularly ugly.”
The TrimTabs/BarclayHedge database tracks hedge fund flows on a monthly basis. The TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report provides detailed analysis of these flows as well as relevant topical studies. Click here for further information.
BarclayHedge is a leading hedge fund data vendor and one of the foremost sources for proprietary research in the field of alternative investments. From its origin as a research specialist and performance measurement firm, BarclayHedge has developed complete client services as a publisher, database and software provider, and industry consultant.
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit us here.
